The Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) has maintained that Uganda has transitioned into a Middle-Income Country despite objections by the World Bank.
While addressing Parliament during the State of the Nation Address on June 7, 2022, President Museveni said Uganda had reached middle-income status despite an onslaught of crises in the past three years.
According to official data, the country’s economy stood at about $45.7 billion by the exchange rate method or $131billion by the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) system- one week to the FY2022/23 Budget Day.
“This means that the GDP per capita is $1046. We have now passed that figure of middle-income status ($1,030),” Museveni told Members of Parliament in a televised State of the Nation Address.
He expressed confidence that Uganda would maintain its spot above the middle-income status GDP per capita minimum of about $1,030.
“You need to sustain this for two to three consecutive years to be declared a middle-income country,” he added.
However, last week, the World Bank said in a new report that Uganda remains a low-income country.
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 4.3% in the first half of 2022 supported by a solid and speedy recovery of the service sector after the lifting of travel and social gathering restrictions, as well as sustained buoyancy of the information and communications sector.
But it was not enough to lift the country into the middle-income bracket.
In addition, the target might remain elusive for a bit longer after the Bank cut its projection for economic growth this year to 3.7%, down from the 6% pre-pandemic estimate.
The report, a biannual analysis of the near-term macroeconomic outlook, said Uganda’s Gross National Income (GNI) per person stood at about $840 in FY2021, and has increased only marginally in the year since leaving the country well below the lower-middle-income threshold of $1,045 per person.
Today, the UBOS Executive Director, Chris Mukiza said the government of Uganda and World Bank figures arose due to three factors that include; sources of data and the period used.
“The reference periods in the two reports is different. Whereas the report by the Government of Uganda was based on the Financial Year 2021/22 official data, the one by the World Bank was based on the Financial Year 2020/21. Thus, the Per Capita Income in the two reports refer to two different periods, the Government of Uganda report being the most up to date,” he said.
“The World Bank used the UN population projections for Uganda for deriving the GNI per capita. The UN mid-year population projection for Uganda for FY 2020/21 is 47.1 million. However, the Government of Uganda’s official population projection for the same period is 42.4 million, resulting in a difference of 4.7 million people,” he added.
Mukiza further said that the Government of Uganda’s official estimates of GDP per capita for FY 2021/22 is US$ 1,046.
“The World Bank does not at this point have any projection for GNI per capita for FY 2021/22, as the GNI per capita estimates released by the World Bank are for FY 2020/2022”